Reminders of what climate change means to the earth have been coming thick and fast in recent weeks, particularly in terms of our weather. The people of Northern Ireland – usually one of the wettest parts of the United Kingdom – saw its temperature record beaten three in a week, with 31.4°C on July 22nd.
That was a fairly benign effect, but much more serious events in other parts of the world had tragic consequences. Catastrophic floods killed more than 160 people in Germany while more than 50 died after incredible rainfall hit the central Chinese province of Henan. A year’s worth of rain fell in just 72 hours and the film of travellers trapped in a tube train filling with water will give many of us nightmares for years to come.
At the same time, forest fires have ripped through Siberia, usually one of the coldest places on earth, after unusually hot, dry weather in the region. Canada and the US have been hit again by wildfires that have destroyed communities and vast areas of woodland, after amazing new record temperatures were experienced down the west coast. One blaze in the state of Oregon has consumed an area 25 times the size of Manhattan and has been out of control for weeks.
There are now fewer than 100 days before the United Nations’ Cop26 climate change conference opens in Glasgow. World leaders will be given what might be one last chance to put in place serious agreements to limit warming and perhaps mitigate the risk of further weather mayhem. But the outlook is not good. Last week, a G20 meeting in Naples, with ministers from countries that account for 85% of global emissions, failed to agree on a full package of commitments.
That meeting was seen as a key stage in the preparation for Cop26, and the arguments do not bode well for Glasgow. India and China will not agree to the early phasing out of coal power, one of the most environmentally damaging processes on the planet, whilst other disputes revolve around who will fund the changes needed. Rich nations have not lived up to their promises in terms of supporting the developing world through the investment required.
"The G20 is failing to deliver. Italy's G20 tagline is 'People, Planet, Prosperity', but today the G20 is delivering 'Pollution, Poverty and Paralysis," said online activist network Avaaz.
The problem is political at heart. China’s leaders may calculate that even if 100,000 or a million of their citizens die each year in floods, the other 1.4 billion would still rather see continued economic growth, unfettered by restrictions on emissions. Germany stopped nuclear power generation years ago after Fukushima, leading to more reliance on fossil fuels – an understandable but purely political rather than scientific decision, which many might call simply “stupid” (with a social cost of $12B a year).
Will political pressure from companies and individuals finally force governments into taking dramatic action to address global warming? I would like to think so, but I am not sure. Until the problems become real to the majority of people, many will just think that this is a problem for others.
So as well as pushing for action through “procurement with purpose”, and driving for net zero through their supply chains, procurement professionals also need to look hard at supply chain risk over coming years. That means moving beyond the traditional “weather related risks” in the obvious regions and countries. Who would have thought that entre villages in Germany would be devastated by floods as they were this month, or that north-west Canada would see temperatures of 49.6C? These issues are only likely to get worse, I fear, so we need to look at mitigating the risks that seem likely to get more and more serious.