The New Year has dawned, and after record low temperatures in the US just before Christmas, we are currently seeing new highs in Europe for the first week of January. The warmest January day ever was recorded in many European countries including Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania and Latvia, according to data from climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme temperatures.
Where temperatures might be expected on average to be around 0-5C in northern and eastern Europe, we have seen 16-20C recorded. And the new records are not incremental increases in many cases. The new record for Belarus at 16.4C is 4.5C higher than the previous. Just like the new UK high last July, we are seeing step changes in temperature records, not just gradual 0.1C at a time increases.
It’s not just northern Europe either. Bilbao in Spain recorded 24.9C, a record, and every country in Europe except the UK, Ireland, Norway, the south-east Med and Italy saw some records broken. This is also bringing a crisis for the skiing industry, with some low-lying resorts closing their ski areas and others reporting a spate of injuries as skiers fall on slushy or rocky slopes. It is good news however for Europe in terms of energy consumption, a matter of some importance given the situation in the Ukraine and the continent’s previous reliance on Russian gas supplies.
I’ve previously mentioned Bill McGuire, a science writer and professor from London’s UCL, and I finished his excellent book – Hothouse Earth – An Inhabitants Guide - over Christmas. One key point which he regularly makes, and is being demonstrated by what we are seeing now, is that the global temperature increase of 1.5C or 2C that gets talked about at conferences will be far from uniform geographically, or over time. On Twitter or in response to newspaper articles you will often see comments like this.
“Well, 2C hotter doesn’t sound too bad, probably better for crops, less fuel consumed, surely we can cope with that?”
But of course that’s not how it works. It is not 2C everywhere that we face, but far bigger swings and more extreme events. And the truth is nobody really knows what the implications of global warming will be. McGuire talks about the possible effects if normal weather patterns, ocean currents or even volcanic activity are disrupted, and he fears there could be tipping points where things really get difficult for humanity. The outcomes could be far more serious than some predictions, and we’re beginning to see how that could play out in this extreme weather (including wind, rain and floods as well as heat or cold) and step changes in record temperatures.
So wouldn’t it be nice to think that what we are seeing now will make governments, businesses and individuals redouble efforts to reduce emissions more quickly? But don’t hold your breath, as the politics of it all are just so difficult. Given this outlook, we should all do what we can, at work and at home, but I believe procurement and supply chain professionals now also need to put more time into looking at mitigating the likely effects of climate change and extremes.
That means planning for what might happen if the temperature becomes literally unbearable in some countries – would our suppliers’ factories, mines or offices have to close? Will transport be disrupted? Do we have suppliers situated in areas vulnerable to flooding? And can we expect our own staff to work from home in countries including the UK where air conditioning is still rare, if we get a week or more of 40C plus temperatures this summer?
That’s not a very cheerful thought for the beginning of a new year. But unfortunately, for many organisations, looking at climate change, and how to mitigate those risks, is now just as important as taking steps to support carbon reduction (and other ESG priorities, of course). It is hard to see anything other than increased climate shocks and extreme events in the coming years, so action is needed now.